Title

Plotting a Course 2023

(EC1090, Revised Jan. 2023)

File

Publication File:

EC1090 Plotting a Course 2023

Summary

Short-term and Long-term Agricultural Planning Prices for North Dakota 2023

Lead Author

Lead Author:

Ron Haugen, Farm Management Specialist

Other Authors

Tim Petry, Livestock Economist; Frayne Olson, Crops Economist

Availability

Availability:

Available in print from the NDSU Distribution Center.

Contact your county NDSU Extension office to request a printed copy.
NDSU staff can order copies online (login required).

Publication Sections

Introduction

Historic and Projected Planning Prices for North Dakota

Crops

Beef

Hogs, Sheep, and Milk

Introduction

Planning for the future can be a very frustrating process but one that typically pays high dividends. For most farm and ranch managers, developing realistic commodity price expectations is one of the most difficult and complex tasks of the planning process. To ease the burden of forecasting planning prices, NDSU Extension has prepared a summary of projected short- and long-term planning prices.

The estimated short-term planning prices should be used as a guide in setting price expectations for 2023 production. These planning prices can be used for preparing annual enterprise budgets and annual whole-farm cash-flow projections.

The short-term planning prices should not be used for planning capital purchases or expansion alternatives that extend beyond the next production year. Unfortunately, the use of short-term planning prices to make long-term decisions is common. This practice is not recommended because current supply/demand conditions rarely continue for long periods of time and are a poor indicator of future trends.

The long-term planning prices are valuable for evaluating alternative plans that affect the farm or ranch business for more than one year. Both individual yearly price forecasts and long-term average prices are presented.

The long-term crop planning prices were derived from annual average price forecasts made by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). The U.S. price estimates reported in the 2022 Baseline Briefing Paper, November 2022, were adjusted using historical relationships to reflect North Dakota farm gate prices.

Historical prices are reported for reference. This information can be a valuable reminder of past price fluctuations and trends. Prices for 2022 are averages to date.

The historical crop prices were obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) “2022 North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service publication No. 91.” Historical milk prices are from FAPRI. Historical feeder steer prices are from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) for Kist Livestock Auction, Mandan, N.D. Historical slaughter steer, cull cow, hog and sheep prices are from NASS and AMS.

Historic and Projected Planning Prices for North Dakota

Marketing Year	Spring Wheat	Durum Wheat	Oats	Feed Barley	Malting Barley	Oil Sunflower	Non-oil Sunflower
	(bu)	(bu)	(bu)	(bu)	(bu)	(cwt)	(cwt)
2017	5.72	6.00	2.55	2.94	4.59	17.10	21.70
2018	5.12	4.83	2.41	3.13	4.43	17.10	23.40
2019	4.44	4.66	2.47	3.30	4.41	19.00	23.80
2020	5.11	5.98	2.54	3.51	4.76	20.50	26.50
2021	8.82	13.90	4.80	5.44	5.35	32.40	33.40
Historical avg. (2017-2021)	5.84	7.07	2.95	3.66	4.71	21.22	25.76
2022 (to date)*	9.07	10.61	4.71	5.92	7.59	27.10**	N.A.
2023 short-term	8.00	9.00	3.00	4.50	6.50	25.00	35.00
2024	7.08	7.68	2.77	3.60	5.76	22.44	32.31
2025	6.82	7.39	2.76	3.58	5.73	21.62	31.13
2026	6.68	7.24	2.72	3.53	5.65	21.19	30.51
2027	6.64	7.20	2.69	3.49	5.58	20.98	30.21
2028	6.58	7.13	2.64	3.43	5.49	20.78	29.92
Projected long-term avg. (2024-28)	6.761	7.332	2.723	3.534	5.645	21.406	30.827

Marketing Year	Corn	Soybeans	Canola	Flaxseed	Winter Wheat	Dry Beans	Dry Peas	Lentils	Alfafa Hay	Other Hay
	(bu)	(bu)	(cwt)	(bu)	(bu)	(cwt)	(cwt)	(cwt)	(ton)	(ton)
2017	3.04	8.88	17.60	9.53	4.14	24.10	12.00	23.50	105.00	77.00
2018	3.32	7.98	15.80	9.89	5.05	22.90	10.50	14.80	91.00	68.00
2019	3.07	7.93	14.80	9.15	3.87	29.60	9.49	13.90	88.00	66.00
2020	4.44	10.20	18.50	11.10	4.82	28.90	10.60	18.20	89.00	71.00
2021	5.86	12.60	33.40	25.90	8.27	41.00	19.90	37.60	172.00	113.00
Historical avg. (2017-2021)	3.95	9.52	20.02	13.11	5.23	29.30	12.50	21.60	109.00	79.00
2022 (to date)*	6.06	13.53	31.55	19.42	8.59	39.22	19.14**	32.77**	137.46	86.71
2023 short-term	5.25	12.25	26.00	14.00	7.00	36.00	15.00	23.00	120.00	80.00
2024	4.42	11.16	21.00	12.00	6.09	33.48	11.72	29.30	110.00	75.00
2025	4.39	10.75	20.23	11.56	5.86	32.25	11.29	28.23	115.00	80.00
2026	4.33	10.54	19.83	11.33	5.74	31.62	11.07	27.68	112.00	75.00
2027	4.28	10.43	19.64	11.22	5.71	31.29	10.95	27.38	120.00	80.00
2028	4.20	10.33	19.44	11.11	5.66	30.99	10.85	27.13	125.00	85.00
Projected long-term avg. (2024-28)	4.328	10.649	20.0310	11.4411	5.8112	31.9313	11.1814	27.9415	116.40	79.00

* average of beginning of marketing year to December 2022

** average of local cash bids

Note: FAPRI projections are updated in January 2023

1 Spring wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. spring wheat = U.S. wheat x 1.07

2 Durum wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship: U.S. spring wheat x 1.16

3 Oats price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. oats = N.D. feed barley x 0.77

4 Feed barley price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. feed barley = U.S. corn x 0.75

5 Malting barley price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. malting barley = N.D. feed barley x 1.6

6 Oil sunflower price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. oil sunflower = U.S. soybean x 1.87

7 Non-oil sunflower price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. non-oil sunflower = N.D. oil sunflower x 1.44

8 Corn price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. corn = U.S. corn x 0.92

9 Soybean price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. soybean = U.S. soybean x 0.93

10 Canola price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. canola = U.S. soybean x 1.75

11 Flaxseed price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. flaxseed = U.S. soybean x 1.0

12 Winter wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. winter wheat = U.S. wheat x 0.92

13 Dry bean price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. dry bean = N.D. soybean x 3.0

14 Dry pea price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. dry pea = N.D. soybean x 1.05

15 Lentil price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. lentil = N.D. dry pea x 2.5

Year*	400-500 lb. Steers	500-600 lb. Steers	600-700 lb. Steers	700-800 lb. Steers	800-900 lb. Steers	1,100-1,700 lb. Cull Cows	5-Area Direct Slaughter Steers
	(bu) Fourth quarter prices	(bu) Fourth quarter prices	(bu) Fourth quarter prices	(bu) First quarter prices	(bu) First quarter prices	(cwt) Annual prices	(cwt) Annual prices
2017	194.23	177.01	166.22	151.40	141.74	68.80	121.52
2018	187.67	169.21	157.80	144.95	137.42	63.50	117.12
2019	168.41	156.01	145.11	143.89	135.51	62.00	116.78
2020	170.96	155.85	147.04	140.90	132.60	64.20	108.51
2021	192.30	173.62	163.51	165.69	155.56	70.20	123.17
Historical avg. (2017-2021)	182.71	166.34	155.94	149.37	140.57	65.74	117.42
2022 (to date)	227.27	204.74	190.84	180.00**	175.00**	84.00	144.52
2023 short-term	235.00	225.00	210.00	200.00**	195.00**	90.00	155.00
2024	245.00	235.00	220.00	210.00**	205.00**	95.00	165.00
2025	255.00	245.00	230.00	220.00**	215.00**	100.00	170.00
2026	260.00	250.00	235.00	225.00**	220.00**	100.00	175.00
2027	255.00	245.00	230.00	220.00**	215.00**	95.00	170.00
2028	250.00	240.00	225.00	215.00**	210.00**	90.00	165.00
Projected long-term avg. (2024-28)	253.00	243.00	228.00	218.00	213.00	96.00	169.00

* 400-500, 500-600 and 600-700 lb. weights are fourth quarter prices. 700-800 and 800-900 lb. weights are first quarter prices of the next year. To estimate heifer prices, subtract $15/cwt for 400-500, 500-600 and 600-700 lb. animals and subtract $6/cwt for 700-800 and 800-900 lb. animals. Cull cow and slaughter steer prices are calendar year averages.

** Projected for the first quarter of the next year.

Year	250 lb. Slaughter Hogs	Slaughter Ewes	105-140 lb. Slaughter Lambs	60-90 lb. Feeder Lambs	All Milk
	(cwt)	(cwt)	(cwt)	(cwt)	(cwt)
2017	50.00	58.00	152.00	188.00	17.60
2018	47.00	45.00	141.00	177.00	16.20
2019	48.70	44.00	149.00	175.00	19.50
2020	44.80	62.00	144.00	189.00	19.90
2021	64.40	98.00	220.00	268.00	19.30
Historical avg. (2017-2021)	50.98	61.40	161.20	199.40	18.50
2022 (to date)	70.00	97.00	165.00	230.00	25.00
2023 short-term	68.00	75.00	150.00	180.00	23.00
2024	67.00	80.00	160.00	190.00	22.00
2025	68.00	82.00	170.00	200.00	23.00
2026	69.00	85.00	175.00	205.00	24.00
2027	70.00	86.00	180.00	210.00	25.00
2028	71.00	87.00	185.00	215.00	26.00
Projected long-term avg. (2024-28)	69.00	84.00	174.00	204.00	24.00

This publication is found at:

www.ag.ndsu.edu/pubs/agecon/market/ec1090.pdf

For more crop economics information:

www.ag.ndsu.edu/cropeconomics

For more livestock economics information:

www.ag.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics

For more farm management information:

www.ag.ndsu.edu/farmmanagement

For more information on this and other topics, see www.ndsu.edu/extension

NDSU encourages you to use and share this content, but please do so under the conditions of our Creative Commons license. You may copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this work as long as you give full attribution, don’t use the work for commercial purposes and share your resulting work similarly. For more information, visit www.ag.ndsu.edu/agcomm/creative-commons.

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Plotting a Course 2023

Table of Contents

Introduction

Historic and Projected Planning Prices for North Dakota

Crops

Beef

Hogs, Sheep, and Milk

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